Discuss the forecasting process for estimating manpower demand.
Forecasting is the process of estimation in unknown situations. Forecasting is used in the practice of customer demand planning in every day business forecasting for manufacturing companies. The process of estimating manpower demand consists of four steps:
- An approach.
- A basic factor.
- A method.
- A technique
There are nearly eight approaches:
These further forms four groups as subjective or objective, global or component, techno-economic or non economic, deterministic or probabilistic.
In case of subjective approach intuition, impression or judgement is used and objective approach is the opposite of these. In the case of global approach manpower is demanded as an overall figure, for the entire problem which is under consideration whereas in the case of component approach the estimation of the demand for segment is considered and then the aggregation takes place. As the name suggests the techno economic approach combines the technological, economic and organizational considerations whereas in case of non-economic approach only socio-political and other considerations are taken into account.
A variable to which manpower demand can be related is called basic factor. The number of considerations together constitutes the multi-dimensional framework of the particular problem being faced.
Methods can be defined as the established, habitual, logical, prescribed practice or systematic process of achieving certain ends with accuracy and efficiency, usually in an ordered sequence of fixed steps. A method provides information about, and access to, a single method on a class or interface. A method permits widening conversions to occur when matching the actual parameters to invoke with the underlying method’s formal parameters.
There are two techniques of manpower demand forecasting:
Subjective: Subjectivity refers to a person’s perspective or opinion, particularly feelings, beliefs, and desires. It is often used casually to refer to unsubstantiated personal opinions, in contrast to knowledge and fact-based beliefs these forecasts are basically made by some experienced people who projects with their experience the rate of changes that are required. It involves subjective estimation of workload and proper manpower utilization. The benefit in this approach is that is no collection of data is required and the disadvantage of the process is that it is based on attitudes, beliefs, or opinions, instead of on verifiable evidence, or phenomenon ultimately which can be sometimes the error of human mind.
Time Series Analysis: Time series analysis accounts for the fact that data points taken over time may have an internal structure (such is auto correlation, trend or seasonal variation) that should be accounted for. Time series data often arises when monitoring industrial processes or tracking corporate business metrics. If time series analysis is assumed as V, then
V = T x C x S x R
where T = trend
C = cyclic effect
S = seasonal effect
R = random effect
Accuracy of Techniques.
The prediction of human resource demand in tourism industry is unpredictable. On an on-going basis, the tourism industry is affected by a wide range of fluctuating parameters of lesser proportions, all of which have a positive or negative impact on movements of tourists and their choice of destination. It is most affected by the uncertainties of the prevailing social, political and economic conditions and the constantly changing geopolitical landscape. Obviously, if tourist traffic can be confidently predicted with a high degree of accuracy, one can plan for the influx. Somehow, the degree of impact varies and is not easily quantifiable. Serious social conflicts, wars and. economic crises are obvious influence’s, but there could be a host of factors such as the price of oil or currency exchange rates that also have a bearing.