What is the importance of Micro Forecasting in Tourism?
Tourism forecasting requires a particular philosophy. It is often said that forecasting in tourism is an art therefore forecasting can be explained as an art of predicting the occurrence of events before they actually take place. Forecasting is a subject that fascinates many people who are interested in the economics of tourism. Estimates of future demand at destination level are very important in managing and planning tourism development and the necessary investment. However, forecasting in the tourism sector is not an easy job because of the factors, forecasting in tourism is different from forecasting in most other sectors.
The aim is not to provide very precise predictions for example, an increase of arrivals of say, six per cent. Those who believe in precise estimations start with the wrong attitude. In tourism, forecasting means indicating the future direction of demand or, in other words, getting an idea of the magnitude of the expected evolution. Knowledge of the extent of future demand should provide sufficient information for a destination management policy, allowing a limit to the range of uncertainty and thus a reduction in investment risks. Forecasting in tourism focuses on the destination level and far less on individual enterprises.